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Austin economist says 2008 will see modest job growth, improvement in 2009
Builders didn't recognize that the local market is healthier than the rest of the country, economist says.
By AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Friday, January 25, 2008
Economist
Angelos Angelou acknowledged Thursday that this is a chancy time to be
making a forecast on the Austin area's near-term growth prospects. But
he took a shot at it anyway.
Despite
international panic in the financial markets and rising worries about
the implosion of the American subprime lending bubble, Angelou said he
said he expects Austin to muddle through 2008 with modest job growth
before seeing an economic upturn in 2009.
"We
have been through tough times before, and Austin has always weathered
the storm pretty well," he said. "But that doesn't mean we are not
going to go through a storm this time."
Angelou,
who heads an economic development consulting firm, delivered his 23rd
annual economic forecast Thursday, predicting that the Austin metro
area will create 17,000 jobs in 2008 for a 2.3 percent growth rate,
which would be the area's lowest job growth rate since 2004, when the
area was climbing out of a prolonged high-tech slump.
Angelou
began issuing economic forecasts for Austin in 1985, when he was
economist at the Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce. He later became
head of economic development at the chamber before starting his own
economic development consulting firm in the mid-1990s.
Next year, he expects the five-county metro area to add another 24,000 jobs, an increase of about 3 percent.
But
all bets are off, he said, if the national economic picture turns
really bad or if one of the area's major private employers announces a
big downsizing move.
The
biggest job growth sectors for 2007 and 2008, Angelou said, will be the
area's traditional standbys: government, professional services, leisure
and hospitality, wholesale and retail trade, and education and health
services.
New
private sector jobs in the area are mostly coming from small
businesses, venture-backed startups and young technology companies, he
said. Big companies "FFFFFF97 including Dell Inc., Freescale
Semiconductor Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. "FFFFFF97 all
suffered through weak years in 2007, he noted.
"We
are modestly optimistic," Angelou said, "but the situation needs to be
monitored closely depending on national trends. If we don't have any
significant challenges (downsizing moves) from major employers, then I
think I am going to stick with my numbers."
Angelou
expects the area's population of 1.58 million to increase by 85,000
people over the next two years. That is on par with the local
population increase estimated at 42,000 for last year, but well below
the 2006 increase of 58,900.
The
biggest local impacts from the national real estate crunch, he said,
are likely to be rising apartment rents, slow demand for houses costing
less than $180,000, increasing foreclosures and an overreaction from
major builders who cut back too far on new housing starts.
Austin
could face a shortage of new homes in the next year or so, Angelou
said, because builders overreacted and didn't recognize that the local
market is healthier than most of the nation's other housing markets.
"The
home building industry is reacting to national trends, and Austin is
not a typical U.S. community," Angelou said. "The big winner is going
to be apartments. People will have to live somewhere. Apartments rents
are going higher.
"We
are concerned about the low number of housing starts," he added.
"Austin is a different market, and the development community is
treating this market like it is treating everyone else (by cutting back
sharply on home building). We may find ourselves with a serious housing
shortage."
On
the national level, Angelou says it is hard to say whether the U.S.
will slide into a formal recession. He expects there will be continued
problems in the mortgage lending industry, which will bleed over into
the broader investment finance industry.
"It
is going to be a prolonged slowdown (in growth), which is going to feel
like a recession" at the national level, he said. "It may take the
nation a year or two to go through these tough times.
"The
recovery is not going to be quick. In any economic recovery, you need
to have the financial sector drive it, and a lot of those folks are
hurting.
Austin Accolades and Rankings
10 BEST BIG CITIES 50 SMART PLACES TO LIVE TOP 50 SMARTEST CITIES TOP 10 CITIES FOR WALKING
CNN.Money.com Kiplinger.com June Austin Business Journal Prevention Magazine
2006 2006 June 2006 April 2006
1. Colorado Springs, CO 1. Nashville, TN 1. Seattle, WA 1. Portland, OR
2. Austin, TX 2. Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN 2. San Francisco, CA 2. Colorado Springs, CO
3. Mesa, AZ 3. Albuquerque, NM 3. Austin, TX 3. Madison, WI
4. Raleigh, NC 4. Atlanta, GA 4. Colorado Springs, CO 4. Boise City, ID
5. San Diego, CA 5. Austin, TX 5. Minneapolis, MN 5. Las Vegas, NV
6. Virginia Beach, VA 6. Kansas City 12. Arlington, TX 6. Austin, TX
7. Omaha, NE 7. Asheville, NC 35. Dallas, TX 7. Virginia Beach, VA
8. Columbus, OH 8. Ithaca, NY 38. Houston, Tx 8. Anchorage, AK
9. Wichita, KS 9. Pittsburgh, PA 40. San Antonio, TX 9. Fremont, CA
10. New York, NY 10. Iowa City, IA 48. El Paso, TX 10. Raleigh, NC
TOP 10 CITIES FOR TOP 10 WIRELESS CITIES TOP 10 METROS FOR FUTURE TOP 10 HOT CITIES
MOVIEMAKERS LiveScience.com BUSINESS LOCATIONS FOR ENTREPRENEURS
MovieMaker Magazine June 2005 Expansion Magazine 8/2006 Entrepreneur.com 9/2005
Winter 2005 1. Seattle-Bellvue-Everett-1. Austin-Round Rock, TX 1. Phoevix-Mesa, AZ
1. New York, NY Tacoma, WA 2. Minneapolis-St.Paul-2. Charlotte-Gastonia
2. Austin, TX 2. San Francisco-San Jose-Bloomington, MN-WIS Rock Hill, NC-SC
3. Philadelphia, PA Oakland, CA 3. Raleigh-Cary, NC 3. Raleigh-Durham
4. New Orleans, LA 3. Austin, TX 4. Dallas-Ft.Worth-Arlington,TX Chapel Hill, NC
5. Portland, OR 4. Portland, OR-Vancover,WA 5. Houston-Baytown-4. Las Vegas, NV-AZ
6. Chicago, IL 5. Toledo, OH Sugar Land, TX 5. Indianapolis, IN
7. Los Angeles, CA 6. Atlanta, GA 6. Washington-Arlington-6. Washinton-Baltimore
8. Miami, FL 7. Denver, CO Alexandria, DC-VA-WVA DC-MD-VA-WV
9. Baltimore, MD 8. Raleigh-Durham, NC 7. Madison, WS 7. Atlanta, GA
9. Minneapolis-St.Paul, MN 8. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue,WA 8. Nashville, TN
10. Orlando, FL 10. Orange County, CA 9. Pittsburgh, PA 9. Austin-San Marcos, TX
TOP HEALTHIEST CITIES THE 50 CLEANEST CITIES 10. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 10. Memphis, TN-AR-MS
IN AMERICA IN AMERICA
Sperling’s Readers Digest
July 2006 July 2005 More Austin Accolades...
1. San Jose, CA 1. Portland, OR
2. Washington, DC 2. San Jose, CA See Back Page
3. San Fancisco, CA 3. Buffalo, NY
4. Seattle-Bellevue, WA 4. Columbus, OH Call Your Austin Title Sales Executive
5. Salt Lake City, UT 5. San Francisco, CA
6. Oakland, CA 6. Denver, CO For Your Free Link To Our
7. Sacramento, CA 7. Rochester, NY Online Relocation Guide
8. Orange County, CA 8. Austin, TX with Complete Community Information.
9. Denver, CO 9. Orlando, FL
10. Austin, TX 10. San Diego, CA
More Austin Accolades
Information compiled from: http://www.austintexas.org/visitors/austin-rankings
Relationships
Austin is the top of the top 10 metro areas containing the highest percentage of women from 18 to 44. According to the study Austin is
45 percent female. (July 2005) Singles are happy—Sperling’s BestPlaces names Austin “The Best City for Dating” (May 2004)
Active
Runner’s World names Austin 11th of the “25 Best Running Cities in America.” (July 2005) and “the Coolest Host City” for the annual
Motorola Marathon. (January 2004)
Condé Nast Traveler’s readers choose Barton Creek Resort and Spa as having one of the top 100 Golf Courses in the
world (June 2005)
The American Hiking Society named the Barton Creek Greenbelt 2nd on its “Top 10 Walking Trails.” Each of the trials named can be
completed in 60 to 90 minutes and are within 10 to 15 miles of a major metro area. (May 2005)
The city proves it’s a world-class destination for “fat-tire fun,” when Men’s Journal makes Austin’s trails #2 on its list of “The Ten Best
Fall Mountain Bike Rides.”
Food
Tyson Cole, owner & chef of South Austin restaurant Uchi, is one of “America’s 10 Best New Chefs,” according to Food & Wine
magazine’s annual ranking. (July 2005)
USA Today declares the Saveur Texas Hill Country Wine and Food Festival one of the most notable food and wine festivals in the country.
(January 27, 2005)
Music & Nightlife
American Way magazine features “The Top 10 Lists of Great American Music” and Austin appears on three of the lists including “great
music towns,” “great bigger-is-better music festivals” for the Austin City Limits Music Festival and “sacred ground” for Threadgill’s
restaurant. (June 1, 2005)
Entertainment Weekly declares local radio station KGSR as one of five “Great Old-School Radio” stations, citing “an only-in-Austin blend
of alt-country, hippie jams, singer-song-writers, and lots of Willie Nelson, of course.” (October 21, 2005)
Austin’s Mean-Eyed Cat bar makes Condé Nast Traveler magazine’s annual “Hot Nights” list. The bar is one of only 35 bars or clubs
from around the world named in the publication, including nine from the US. Oslo nightclub made the list in 2004. (May 2005)
Sports Illustrated recognized the Longhorn hangout of Scholz Beer Garten as 18 of the “25 Best Sports Bars in America,” noting the bar
as being the oldest continuously operated business in Texas.
Travel & Leisure
Austin joins the likes of Bermuda, Hilton Head, South Beach and Yellowstone as one of MSNBC’s “top 10 memorial getaways.”
(May 26, 2005)
For the first time, Lake Austin Spa Resort ranks 10th on Travel & Leisure magazine’s list of the world’s best spas, as voted by readers.
(August 2005)
-Each year, Intel ranks the top 100 U.S. Cities and regions with the greatest number of commercial and public wireless Internet access
points and Austin ranks third. (October 2005)
-Austin earns the #2 spot on Vegetarian Times’ “Ten Greenest Cities” list. (July/August 2005)
American Style magazine chooses Austin #8 in the “Top 25 U.S. Arts Destination.” (June 2005)
Business & Technology
Austin-based companies, Whole Foods Market (ranked 30) and National Instruments (ranked 40) make Fortune magazine’s list of “100
Best Companies to Work For.” (January 24, 2005)
Austin is among the coolest cities for young professionals, according to Kiplinger.com. The website sited University of Texas, the
city’s musicians, margaritas and cheap rent as contributing factors to the Capital City’s cool factor. (September 2005)
Austin came in sixth in a study by Silicon Valley naming the nation’s top tech hubs. The study compared business and quality-of-life
issues, claiming Austin has affordable housing, electricity and state taxes. (September 2005)
The Austin area ranked third on Forbes magazine’s “Best Places” for business and careers, giving the Capital City high marks for
education attainment, net migration to the area and the cost of doing business in the region. (May 2005)
Austin again makes an appearance on Forbes magazine’s “The Top 10 Places for Business” – this time ranking third. (May 24, 2004)
Families & Relocation
Austin is the “Best Large City for Relocating Families,” according to The Worldwide Employee Relocation Council (ERC), Primacy
Relocation and Sperling’s BestPlaces. (June 2004)
Austin is #1 for the second consecutive year on Hispanic magazine’s, “Top 10 Cities for Hispanics to Live In” list. (August 2005)